Heavy Lifting

On the nature of bribes

2011-12-08T13:41:00.003-06:00

An interesting report on bribery in the United States suggests that it is not as common as in other countries but it still happens. This chart was interesting, although N is small:

A Day that Still Lives in Infamy?

2011-12-07T14:22:00.001-06:00

Every year I feel that December 7 has lost some of its luster in the minds of U.S. citizens. This is a shame because it (along with 9/11) provide important lessons for us in the area of foreign policy and the waging of war.

Now that the new New Deal is on the table, and all the people who were let go from Starbucks are now going to be building our bridges and schools, it is looking more and more like Bush-Obama is a replay of Hoover-FDR. Let's hope that the similarities end at the Keynesian policies and do not spread too far into the geopolitical.

We all have seen the devastating picture of the U.S.S. Arizona, but not too often do you see a "before" picture of the magnificent ship.

vs.

RIP.

Franklin Roosevelt's Day of Infamy speech

Note: This is the eighth installment of my tribute to Pearl Harbor on Heavy Lifting. Wow - how fast time flies by.

Are we this bad off?

2011-07-15T19:25:00.000-05:00

As I am reading through my Adam Smith (once again), I come across this ditty:

The post office is properly a mercantile project. The government advances the expence of establishing the different offices, and of buying or hiring the necessary horses or carriages, and is repaid with a large profit by the duties upon what is carried. It is perhaps the only mercantile project which has been successfully managed by, I believe, every sort of government. The capital to be advanced is not very considerable. There is no mystery in the business. The returns are not only certain, but immediate.

It turns out that the Post Office is not an automatic profit maker - ours isn't in the US, I don't believe, and I think Sweden(?) privatized theirs recently. My point is that Adam Smith took the post office to be a good profit center for the state and 225 years later the unions, bureaucrats and the general inefficiency of the state monopoly seems to have proven him wrong (at least in practice).

Smith: Wealth of Nations, Book V, Chapter 2 | Library of Economics and Liberty

Remember Wisconsin

2011-07-01T12:31:00.000-05:00

This an interesting story about how the new laws in Wisconsin are changing the stance of the unions - especially interesting is the part about how the health care premiums paid to the union-created health insurance provider were supposed to increase before the law was passed but afterwards, now that school districts can shop around for health insurance, the premiums offered by the union-created health insurance provider came down.

Union curbs rescue a Wisconsin school district | Byron York | Politics | Washington Examiner

Slaughter ban sending horses across borders - Washington Times

2011-06-25T11:24:00.000-05:00

I remember talking about this outcome five years ago.

Slaughter ban sending horses across borders - Washington Times

Is a national budget necessary?

2011-06-19T11:29:00.003-05:00

I am not going to go too long on this thought. However, this morning on Fox News Sunday's "roundtable" discussion the panelist/spokesman for the Obama administration and democrat party at large said the following (transcript here:

BURTON: Right, but the country is still running. Like, we're doing OK without a budget in the sense that nothing is shutting down.

The Congress can still pass the jobs measures that the president wants to move forward. Congress can still move forward on a lot of the different things that will help to actually create jobs and grow the economy.

We have made progress on jobs, 2.1 million in this recovery. The economy is growing as opposed to contracting.

There's a lot more that need to get done. I don't know that the budget is necessarily the be all, end all as it relates to how we're actually going to get to economy on a track that's going to have sustained growth.

In essence, the spokesman says that the Congress and the government as a whole does not need a budget because the important thing is jobs. This might be true from a political sense. I am confident that voters will respond more positively to jobs than to a budget. However, a budget is important because it is legislative language that specifies to some extent what the government can and cannot do, especially the executive branch. To the extent that the House and Senate did not pass a budget during the Obama administration, they gave a free hand to spend without authority or accountability. In some way this might match with a Keynesian philosophy, I am not sure one way or the other, but when I heard the spokesman say, in essence, that the government doesn't need a budget because jobs are what's important, I had images of every failed statist economy flash through my head.

Politics vs. philosophy? At times it is tough to disentangle the two. Is not having a budget a purely political act - simultaneously allowing the Congress and the Executive branches to continue spending on pet projects that are essentially arbitrary, avoiding putting anything down on paper that could later be used against democrats come election time in 2010 when they had a clear chance to lose, and forcing the incoming Republicans to come up with a plan to do something with spending/deficit/debt (which turns out to be the Ryan plan) after which the Democrats can accuse Republicans of wanting to kill everyone's grandmother?

Or is not having a budget a philosophical act that consciously attempted to move our country even further away from accountability on the part of the elected officials?

Maybe both?

End of pet-peeve of the day.

Happy father's day.

Dictatorship is always bad

2011-06-19T10:38:00.001-05:00

This mini-doc on Myanmar/Burma is an eye-opener. The arbitrariness of dictators is easy to discuss in class and on paper, it is another thing to see it in action. Amazing.

Happy World - Burma, the dictatorship of the... by happy-world_tv

Interesting Picture

2011-06-06T10:45:00.000-05:00

An interesting graph showing a sharp decrease in net foreign assets when the central bank of Australia and Sweden increase net domestic assets. I am not an international accountant, but aren't these two values additive inverses (HT: math friend Steve C.)

KornaAUD3

Thank you, Thank you, Thank you

2011-06-06T10:37:00.000-05:00

On the Myth of Measurement

2011-04-25T21:10:00.000-05:00

I love this graph:

Inflation, which is beneficial in moderation, has climbed closer to healthy levels since the Fed started buying bonds.

In theory (and perhaps in recent practice) a little bit of inflation is fine. However, I dislike the general definition of inflation - that is
a general increase in prices - because prices don't adjust simultaneously or uniformly. I like to think of inflation as a policy-driven reduction in purchasing power. If that is a working definition, no matter what the non-core CPI says, it would seem that there is a lot higher inflation than the Fed is recognizing.

Stimulus by Fed Is Disappointing, Economists Say - NYTimes.com

Mission creep? What mission creep?

2011-04-23T20:17:00.000-05:00

These guys are every bit as good as the previous administration at the newspeak. Oh yeah, this guy was part of the previous administration:

"At the same time, however, Gates said the administration's decision to provide $25 million in nonlethal military assistance to the rebels did not signal a deeper U.S. commitment to anti-Gadhafi forces whose makeup, objectives and motives still are not fully understood in Washington."

Obama OKs Use of Armed Drones in Libya

Voting for raising the debt ceiling

2011-04-15T10:04:00.000-05:00

This story provides an interesting graph depicting US debt vs. debt ceilings. It seems that a vote to raise the debt ceiling is really just a vote to raise the level of debt. If that is true, then I suppose those politicians who are against raising the level of US debt are right to vote against raising the debt ceiling. There will be interesting, and disgusting, political machinations in the coming weeks.

NationalJournal.com - GRAPHIC: 10 Years, 10 Broken U.S. Debt Ceilings - Wednesday, April 13, 2011

150 years ago - insanity reigned

2011-04-12T10:02:00.000-05:00

I am a life-long Southerner who grew up on a major ~~Civil War~~ War Between the States battlefield (Lookout Mountain) and while I didn't have any family who fought on either side of the war, growing up in the middle of the history of the War was informative. However, as we have moved toward today - the 150th anniversary of the firing on Fort Sumter - I have definitely had weird feelings. What were the day-to-day conversations about during that time - here in NC, in my childhood hometown? How strange it would be to travel back into time, given today's sensibilities and culture, and witness them.

They are firing on Fort Sumter as we speak - in commemoration of the event - but it is also a reminder that insanity once reigned in this country.

To the 620k that perished - RIP

Roth IRA: Time to retire Roth IRAs - latimes.com

2011-04-11T21:40:00.000-05:00

Gerald Scorse comes out and says what some of us figure the politicians will have to do sooner or later. I don't agree with his arguments that putting money in a Roth IRA is somehow cheating on the game, and I am definitely against the government changing the rules in the middle is not good, but I fully anticipate an Argentina-type takeover at some point in my lifetime.

Roth IRA: Time to retire Roth IRAs - latimes.com

My sports economics presentation

2011-03-31T10:42:00.003-05:00

Here is a link to a presentation I gave concerning my recent and ongoing sports economics research to the UNCC Chapter of ODE. It was fun and thanks to those who attended.

Stanford drops list of 'easy' classes for athletes

2011-03-10T09:18:00.000-06:00

I'm shocked!! Shocked, I say.

There were classes like this at UGA for regular students when I was in undergraduate. I took three one-hour courses including Introduction to Forestry, Introduction to Textile Management, and one other which I cannot remember the name of. The classes were filled and I don't think there were too many athletes in the classes.

Perhaps at Stanford the quality of the average student is that much higher that the regular student body doesn't focus on these classes?

A drama class in Beginning Improvising and another in Social Dances of North America III were among dozens of classes on a closely guarded quarterly list distributed only to Stanford athletes to help them choose classes.

Stanford drops list of 'easy' classes for athletes

Fresno? Nobody goes to Fresno anymore

2011-03-04T13:01:00.001-06:00

Okay, this is about Michigan from Comerica Bank.

Title quote from "Airplane!"

Study: University of Minnesota has $8.6 billion impact on state's economy | Grand Forks Herald | Grand Forks, North Dakota

2011-03-02T13:24:00.000-06:00

Are we buying this? The University of Minnesota system returns more than $13 for every dollar the state puts into the system? That sounds awfully high.

Study: University of Minnesota has $8.6 billion impact on state's economy | Grand Forks Herald | Grand Forks, North Dakota

The Technium: Free Kindle This November

2011-02-27T21:06:00.000-06:00

The Technium: Free Kindle This November

Lloyd M. Krieger: ObamaCare Is Already Damaging Health Care - WSJ.com

2011-02-24T10:13:00.000-06:00

From the story:

There is little mystery how the government will exercise its power. Choices will be limited. Pathways to expensive specialist care such as advanced radiology and surgery will decline. Cutting-edge devices and medicines will come into the system much more slowly and be used much less frequently.

Lloyd M. Krieger: ObamaCare Is Already Damaging Health Care - WSJ.com

Providence plans to pink slip all teachers | Rhode Island news | projo.com | The Providence Journal

2011-02-23T11:46:00.000-06:00

Perhaps this is part of the problem?

"He said it makes no sense to send out dismissal notices to every teacher because the district has a legal obligation to educate all of its students, regardless of budget considerations."

Providence plans to pink slip all teachers | Rhode Island news | projo.com | The Providence Journal

Atlas Shrugged Part 1

2011-02-22T12:57:00.002-06:00

The movie is not as low budget as I feared and it is clearly not an exact replica of the book, but Part 1 looks intriguing. I hope it plays in Charlotte.

Michigan Economic Activity Index Feb. 2011

2011-02-22T11:57:00.003-06:00

Michigan Economic Activity Index from Comerica Bank - Michigan activity is only 85% of 2004 levels. Ouch.

Media cite

2011-02-22T11:44:00.001-06:00

Here is a story about the Super Bowl

Wis. lawmakers flee state to block anti-union bill - Yahoo! News

2011-02-17T19:17:00.000-06:00

Democrats in Texas pulled the same tactic a few years ago in Texas - that time they fled to just over the border in Oklahoma.

I liked this catchy phrase: "Freedom! Democracy! Unions!"

How many contradictions are inherent in that one?

Wis. lawmakers flee state to block anti-union bill - Yahoo! News

One reason tuition is going up

2011-02-11T09:57:00.003-06:00

Tuition is not increasing to necessarily give us professors a raise. Rather, state legislatures are dramatically cutting back on the state support for higher education (net impacts at this point are unknown at this time but dissertations and careers will be made on these shocks). Today's UB Daily has the following stories:

University of Minnesota students — realizing that lawmakers may be looking at cuts in higher education funding as one of the ways to resolve the $6.2 billion state budget deficit — will rally at the Capitol Feb. 22

Hundreds of Texas students will be denied financial aid and will be unable to attend college if the Legislature proceeds with 20 to 25 percent cuts in state aid to higher education in coming years, leaders of the state's top public universities told the Texas Senate Finance Committee in Austin on Wednesday.

More than 100 degree programs will be eliminated at Missouri colleges and universities as part of a cost-savings review ordered by Gov. Jay Nixon.

Gov. Rick Scott's [Florida] budget cuts $340 million from college and university education and research by not restoring federal stimulus dollars, but makes up lost federal cash by essentially keeping funding flat for Bright Futures scholarships received by Florida students.

A few state senators want to freeze tuition at Minnesota's public colleges and universities -- then limit tuition increases forever.

Thankfully the news in NC is not quite so bad.

Interesting clause

2011-02-07T14:54:00.001-06:00

Here is an interesting clause in the agreement between the city of Charlotte and the Democrat National Campaign Committee concerning the 2012 convention to be held in the Queen City:

17.1. Use of union labor.

To the extent permitted by law, to the extent, if any, such labor is available in the region, and except as otherwise expressly agreed by the DNCC, all services, goods, equipment, supplies and materials to be provided or procured by the Host Committee hereunder shall be performed or supplied by firms covered by current union collective bargaining agreements with the unions which have jurisdiction for the work or services to be performed.

I wonder if there is a similar clause in the RNCC's agreement with Tampa?

Link to the Charlotte agreement

Post-Katrina recovery

2011-01-31T15:09:00.004-06:00

An interesting article in the current issue of Disasters reports on a repeat photography study that investigated several counties affected by Hurricane Katrina. The repeat photography study attempts to document, for a representative sample of properties, the continued pace of recovery in rebuilding structures. It is an interesting read and it included the graphic above. The upshot is that a little more than 60% of their observations had "fully recovered," that is rebuilt, by 2008.

That is cool.

Link to paper [gated]

Why seek exemption from the health care bill?

2011-01-31T08:59:00.001-06:00

It is interesting that certain economic agents are being granted an exemption from the new health care regulations. Are the exemptions being handed out with political intentions - it has happened before with Lincoln, FDR, and a lot of other presidents?

From the article:

Our democracy cannot allow a president to exercise the unholy power of picking and choosing winners and losers, of choosing who must follow his flawed laws and who gets a free pass. If any American deserves a waiver from Obamacare, then all Americans do.

WOLF: Tawdry details of Obamacare - Washington Times

Secretary Geithner Sends Debt Limit Letter to Congress

2011-01-27T22:15:00.000-06:00

An interesting, if self-serving, read on why the US Congress must increase the country's debt limit.

Secretary Geithner Sends Debt Limit Letter to Congress

China to create largest mega city in the world with 42 million people - Telegraph

2011-01-27T10:27:00.000-06:00

Quick - how many people live in the Chinese city of Dongguang? I bet you don't know. Neither did I. There are a lot of multi-million person cities in China that we have never heard of, but a 42 million person mega city? This looks more like an administrative issue rather than the idea that 42 million will be living on top of each other.

It is interesting that there is never talk of such administrative restructuring here - we might see county-city governments merge and we see some annexation of unincorporated areas at times but nothing on this scale.

China to create largest mega city in the world with 42 million people - Telegraph

Have we seen this movie before?

2011-01-26T16:55:00.000-06:00

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/hs275.snc6/180326_10150125260171694_714666693_7760352_5702211_n.jpg

Hmmmmm......this picture looks a lot like another picture we saw in 2007 in real estate. This is the nominal price of gold over the past thirty years.

Hayek in Text Message Lingo

2011-01-15T18:22:00.000-06:00

Original text from the beginning of "Use of Knowledge in Society":

What is the problem we wish to solve when we try to construct a rational economic order? On certain familiar assumptions the answer is simple enough. If we possess all the relevant information, if we can start out from a given system of preferences, and if we command complete knowledge of available means, the problem which remains is purely one of logic. That is, the answer to the question of what is the best use of the available means is implicit in our assumptions.

Translated into text-message lingo:

watz d prob we wsh 2 solve wen we try 2 construct a rational econmc ordA? On certN familir assumptions d ans S simpl nuf. f we own ll d relevant info, f we cn *t ot frm a givN sys of prefs, n f we cmd cmplt nolage of available means, d prob wich remains S purely 1of logic. dat S, d ans 2 d Q of watz A1 uz of d available means S implicit n r assumptions.

Please, please, stop writing text-message lingo on paper.

How much did/does Bosnia matter?

2011-01-10T08:17:00.002-06:00

The more I read about the war in Bosnia, and specifically the ethnic cleansing against the Muslim population, the more I wonder how much that episode plays into the anti-west/anti-American sentiment many Muslim countries seem to share. Perhaps there is no connection, but the lack of effort on our part to protect Muslims in Bosnia seems counter to the effort to protect Muslims in Kuwait during the same time period.

"The Black Book of Bosnia" is an interesting, if decidedly one-sided read. However, it is illuminating to me because it draws much more distinct and morally strict picture about what happened in that war and contrasts that image with the rhetoric in this country, much of which I glossed over while I was in graduate school.

From page 194 of my copy:

We [the West] disarmed ourselves with our condescension, with our worship of revolution. Human nature did not change in 1910, as a modern writer said it did; or later. The spiritual needs of individuals take different historical forms, but they are not historical. And the spiritual traditions of groups are not the consequences of underdevelopment. For this reason, developments will not transform them. Technology puts new tools at the service of old hungers, that is all. Theocracy was established in Iran with the help of tape cassettes. The air defenses of the Bosnian Serbs have the blessing of the Eastern Church (And cyberspace is a sanctuary of unreason.) These are not archaisms or atavisms or anachronisms. They are the unsimple expressions of individuals and groups who are continuous and discontinuous with what preceded them. Those are the only kind of individuals and groups there are or have ever been. The past is part of the present and the present is part of the past. That is what moderns do not like to see. The ideology of modernity taught that the relationship between the present and the past is a relationship of contradiction; and so we are always startled.

This is an amazing paragraph that forces us post-modern/post-conflict folks to address how the rest of the world is dealing with their own emergence from dark political and economic times - it seems that individuals are not "reformed" by goodies alone, that they will continue to seek solace in religion, spirituality, and group-think even with the goodies.

The piece goes on:

Racial genocide, in the West, in this day and age? You better believe it. And not for the first time, if a day and an age is longer than fifty years. Almost as soon as the character of the war against the Bosnians was clear, comparisons to the war against the Jews were made. In anguish and in analysis, the Holocaust was remembered; and since genocide is not quantitatively measured, the remembrance was right. What has not been sufficiently remarked upon is the impact of the European genocide of the 1990s upon the world picture that was formed in the aftermath of the European genocide of the 1940s. We have been robbed, you might say, of our post-Holocaust innocence.

And this is where the author hits me in the gut:

Post-Holocaust innocence? Let me explain. The enormity of our century marked us with a vanity about darkness. We were the ones who saw, or we were the children of the ones who saw, an evil that would never come again. This belief in the uniqueness of the evil was a tribute to its magnitude (which, again, was not measured only quantitatively). A perverse kind of pride could be found in this experience of finality. "Never again," some us used to say about the radical, state-sponsored, tribe-happy evil that destroyed the Jews of Europe a generation ago.

Watching Bosnia, from my lucky but cheerless distance, I have understood the secret attraction of that slogan. It flattered us that we had hit bottom; and in this way it held out hte prospect of a re-illusionment. For the mind might accommodate such crimes, if it could be sure that they occurred only once; and sure, too, that their occurrence would be received as a warning. But now we know that the Holocaust was not received as a warning. It was received as a precedent. and so we are bereft of the certainty that the worst is over, which was a kind of optimism. For that part of the world we congratulate as "the West," the post-Auschwitz honeymoon is over. It is one of the consequences of the Serbian terror in Bosnia that we may never again say "never again."

Wow.

Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes

2011-01-05T12:09:00.000-06:00

Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes

Here's the abstract:

For U.S. annual data that include WWII, the estimated multiplier for defense spending is 0.6-0.7
at the median unemployment rate. There is some evidence that this multiplier rises with the
extent of economic slack and reaches 1.0 when the unemployment rate is around 12%.
Multipliers for non-defense purchases cannot be reliably estimated from U.S. macroeconomic
time series because of the lack of good instruments. Since the defense-spending multiplier is
typically less than one, greater spending tends to crowd out other components of GDP. The
largest effects are on private investment, but non-defense purchases and net exports tend also to
fall. The response of private consumer expenditure differs insignificantly from zero. For
samples that begin in 1950, increases in average marginal income-tax rates (measured by a
newly constructed time series) have a significantly negative effect on real GDP. We lack reliable
statistical evidence on how this response divides up between substitution effects from changes in
tax rates versus income effects from changes in government revenue.

In other words, the fiscal stimulus of the past couple years is unlikely to have had the impact the current crop of politicians claim. Barro's study would predict that $1.7 trillion spent would yield nothing discernible in terms of jobs, increased GDP, etc. On the surface it seems that his historical analysis might be consistent with our recent experience. Interesting reading and we know that the real answer to the question of the current stimulus plan's impact won't be forthcoming for a number of years.

Happy 100th Birthday Ronald Coase

2010-12-30T12:22:00.000-06:00

How many people win a Nobel prize for their senior thesis? Okay, he won it for a little more than that but his theory of the firm was instrumental in my field of specialization - Industrial Organization.

Amazing.

Economist story here

Something to think about

2010-12-29T12:52:00.002-06:00

As we come to yet another New Year and the cliche calls for world peace, I found this passage on page 139 of my copy of the "Black Book of Bosnia," to offer something to think about:

No sooner had Europe perpetrated the most spectacular genocide in history than its eastern half could pose as a group of tolerant nations suffering tyranny and its western half could pose as a group of tolerant nations opposing tyranny. Of course, the eastern half did suffer and the western half did oppose. But the tyranny turns out to have frustrated not only the hunger for freedom. It turns out to have frustrated also the hunger for sameness. Over here [in the US] we thought that the Soviet empire was evil because it forbade the mind and shackled the spirit. Over there [in Europe] they thought that the Soviet empire was evil because it forced people to live with people not like themselves. And these outbursts of collective subjectivity should not be dignified as "nationalism." They represent the hoariest, the shabbiest, tribalism.

I suppose a possible problem is that it really isn't much different in other parts of the world which we [the US in particular] hope to reform. If so, then will our efforts prove fruitless?

The OSU defense?

2010-12-25T16:51:00.000-06:00

I guess our guy was told the rules and suffered a four game suspension during the season - arguably ruining our season? I suppose the lesson for the athletic departments is to have a compliance office that is not too quick on the uptake and things will be just fine, thank you very much.

When is enough enough?

2010-12-22T15:10:00.000-06:00

How about this line:

In the next year, the federal government will write new rules that can determine what kinds of foods are allowed to be sold on school grounds, including in vending machines and at fundraisers.

Nothing else to do at the Federal level than to tell my local school what foods are "allowed"? Wow.

In St. Paul schools, the not-so-sweet life | StarTribune.com

Not sure if we are quite there yet, but...

2010-12-13T14:37:00.000-06:00

Something to think about....

http://i.imgur.com/INPfc.jpg

History of the quote here

Bicycle weight and commuting time: randomised trial -- Groves 341 -- bmj.com

2010-12-10T13:35:00.000-06:00

This is an funny article from the Christmas edition of the British Medical Journl:

Abstract

Objective: To determine whether the author’s 20.9 lb (9.5 kg) carbon frame bicycle reduced commuting time compared with his 29.75 lb (13.5 kg) steel frame bicycle.

Design: Randomised trial.

Setting: Sheffield and Chesterfield, United Kingdom, between mid-January 2010 and mid-July 2010.

Participants: One consultant in anaesthesia and intensive care.

Main outcome: measure Total time to complete the 27 mile (43.5 kilometre) journey from Sheffield to Chesterfield Royal Hospital and back.

Results: The total distance travelled on the steel frame bicycle during the study period was 809 miles (1302 km) and on the carbon frame bicycle was 711 miles (1144 km). The difference in the mean journey time between the steel and carbon bicycles was 00:00:32 (hr:min:sec; 95% CI –00:03:34 to 00:02:30; P=0.72).

Conclusions: A lighter bicycle did not lead to a detectable difference in commuting time. Cyclists may find it more cost effective to reduce their own weight rather than to purchase a lighter bicycle.

Good to know that the science is in and that commuting and racing are different.

Bicycle weight and commuting time: randomised trial -- Groves 341 -- bmj.com

what is the value of the train?

2010-12-08T09:26:00.001-06:00

A paper in the current German Economic Review investigates the impact of intercity rail connections on local property values. This is potentially important as more public dollars are spent on creating intercity train links - if people don't value them then why do it (other than obvious rent-seeking)?

Here is the abstract:

Abstract. This paper is the first to provide a micro-level analysis of the impact of intercity rail connections on property prices. We use the variation in mainline accessibility provided by the reorganization of the rail system in post-unification Berlin to isolate accessibility effects from correlated individual location effects. Evidence does not support the existence of localized effects on location productivity and household utility. While the city, since unification, has undergone significant changes in its spatial structure, these effects cannot be attributed to the new transport concept. Our findings question the justification for committing substantial public funds to downtown rail redevelopment projects.

The Train has Left the Station: Do Markets Value Intracity Access to Intercity Rail Connections? - Ahlfeldt - 2010 - German Economic Review - Wiley Online Library

A Day that Still Lives in Infamy?

2010-12-07T08:26:00.002-06:00

Every year I feel that December 7 has lost some of its luster in the minds of U.S. citizens. This is a shame because it (along with 9/11) provide important lessons for us in the area of foreign policy and the waging of war.

Now that the new New Deal is on the table, and all the people who were let go from Starbucks are now going to be building our bridges and schools, it is looking more and more like Bush-Obama is a replay of Hoover-FDR. Let's hope that the similarities end at the Keynesian policies and do not spread too far into the geopolitical.

We all have seen the devastating picture of the U.S.S. Arizona, but not too often do you see a "before" picture of the magnificent ship.

vs.

RIP.

Franklin Roosevelt's Day of Infamy speech

Note: This is the seventh installment of my tribute to Pearl Harbor on Heavy Lifting. Wow - how fast time flies by.

On Hockey in the South

2010-12-06T09:20:00.003-06:00

This week's Sports Business Journal reported turnstile counts for the various NHL teams. Granted, most teams have only played 13-15 home games to date, but I took the data on capacity utilization and "regressed" that against a dummy variable that takes a value of one if the team plays in the South (I initially included Phoenix as Southern but not the California teams).

Here are the results:


 reg capacity south

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =      30
-------------+------------------------------           F(  1,    28) =   11.61
       Model |  1309.25799     1  1309.25799           Prob > F      =  0.0020
    Residual |  3157.01117    28  112.750399           R-squared     =  0.2931
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared =  0.2679
       Total |  4466.26916    29  154.009281           Root MSE      =  10.618

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    capacity |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       south |  -15.61925     4.5836    -3.41   0.002    -25.00833   -6.230175
       _cons |   94.74783   2.214089    42.79   0.000     90.21247    99.28318

Non-Southern teams average around 95% capacity utilization whereas Southern teams average capacity utilization is about 15 percentage points lower. This would not seem conducive to long-run viability of these Southern franchises.

I added Anaheim, San Jose, and Los Angeles to the mix and renamed the DV warmstate:


 reg capacity warmstate

      Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =      30
-------------+------------------------------           F(  1,    28) =    5.79
       Model |  765.408079     1  765.408079           Prob > F      =  0.0230
    Residual |  3700.86108    28   132.17361           R-squared     =  0.1714
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared =  0.1418
       Total |  4466.26916    29  154.009281           Root MSE      =  11.497

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    capacity |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   warmstate |    -10.715   4.452644    -2.41   0.023    -19.83583   -1.594171
       _cons |     94.675   2.570735    36.83   0.000     89.40909    99.94091

The three California teams draw pretty well (Anaheim at 85.9%, Los Angeles at 99.8%, and San Jose at 100% capacity), which causes the parameter on warmstate to be closer to zero than the parameter on south.

Things might change over the course of the season, especially when college and professional football is finished (I think college football in the South dominates everything, including NASCAR). So, I will try to rerun these difference-in-means tests at various points during the season.

So you want to get a PHD in economics?

2010-12-03T11:27:00.003-06:00

okay, found one talking about getting a PHD in economics:

So you want to get a PHD in Political Science?

2010-12-03T11:25:00.002-06:00

This one is funny and is not too far off from economics:

Do (our) students avoid mondays and fridays?

2010-12-03T10:55:00.002-06:00

The registration data for the undergraduate classes in our college were released earlier this week. I dragged the data into Stata and calculated the number of empty seats in each class. I then estimated a silly model which tested for differences-in-means between classes that meet once a week, twice a week, and three days a week:


  Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =     117
-------------+------------------------------           F(  7,   109) =    3.54
       Model |  9755.77055     7  1393.68151           Prob > F      =  0.0018
    Residual |   42913.785   109   393.70445           R-squared     =  0.1852
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared =  0.1329
       Total |  52669.5556   116  454.047893           Root MSE      =  19.842

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       empty |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          mw |  -26.35268   13.96763    -1.89   0.062    -54.03606    1.330705
          tr |  -28.25621   13.83294    -2.04   0.043    -55.67264   -.8397799
         mwf |  -.0714286   9.185055    -0.01   0.994    -18.27591    18.13305
       monly |  -5.083333   12.80795    -0.40   0.692    -30.46827     20.3016
       tonly |  -.3214286   15.76099    -0.02   0.984     -31.5592    30.91634
       wonly |  -16.17857   12.43662    -1.30   0.196    -40.82755    8.470412
       ronly |  -11.82143   19.48444    -0.61   0.545    -50.43896    26.79611
       _cons |   33.82143   13.52004     2.50   0.014     7.025158     60.6177

The omitted category is Friday-only classes. Those classes that meet once a week tend to have more empty seats than those that meet twice a week but no more or less seats than classes that meet three times a week. However, there is on statistically meaningful difference between the number of empty seats (on average) for MW vs. TR classes.

However, those classes that meet once a week might be held in bigger classrooms. Thus, I ran the same model with available seats being the dependent variable:


   Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =     117
-------------+------------------------------           F(  7,   109) =    0.65
       Model |  11449.1888     7  1635.59839           Prob > F      =  0.7114
    Residual |  273157.598   109  2506.03301           R-squared     =  0.0402
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared = -0.0214
       Total |  284606.786   116  2453.50678           Root MSE      =   50.06

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         avl |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          mw |  -49.45536   35.23959    -1.40   0.163    -119.2991    20.38837
          tr |  -43.18634   34.89978    -1.24   0.219    -112.3566    25.98388
         mwf |  -27.64286   23.17341    -1.19   0.236    -73.57181    18.28609
       monly |   .3333333   32.31378     0.01   0.992    -63.71153     64.3782
       tonly |  -29.97619   39.76415    -0.75   0.453    -108.7874    48.83506
       wonly |  -20.57143   31.37695    -0.66   0.513    -82.75952    41.61667
       ronly |  -50.64286   49.15823    -1.03   0.305    -148.0729    46.78716
       _cons |   120.6429   34.11034     3.54   0.001     53.03727    188.2484

Interestingly, there does not seem to be a clear pattern in class size and when a class meets. If anything, classes that meet twice a week might be held in smaller classrooms.

I thus converted the original dependent variable of empty seats into the percent of seats unsubscribed:


   Source |       SS       df       MS              Number of obs =     117
-------------+------------------------------           F(  7,   109) =    4.09
       Model |  .986905122     7  .140986446           Prob > F      =  0.0005
    Residual |  3.75886104   109  .034484964           R-squared     =  0.2080
-------------+------------------------------           Adj R-squared =  0.1571
       Total |  4.74576617   116  .040911777           Root MSE      =   .1857

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    pctempty |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          mw |  -.2804511   .1307231    -2.15   0.034      -.53954   -.0213621
          tr |  -.3286963   .1294625    -2.54   0.013    -.5852868   -.0721057
         mwf |  -.0323198    .085963    -0.38   0.708    -.2026956     .138056
       monly |  -.1040963   .1198697    -0.87   0.387    -.3416741    .1334814
       tonly |  -.0269122   .1475072    -0.18   0.856    -.3192666    .2654423
       wonly |  -.2180844   .1163944    -1.87   0.064    -.4487744    .0126056
       ronly |  -.0283804    .182355    -0.16   0.877    -.3898021    .3330413
       _cons |   .3950471   .1265341     3.12   0.002     .1442606    .6458335

So, Friday only classes have a 40% of seats unregistered. Twice a week classes have a substantially lower percentage of empty seats. I would have thought students would seek to avoid MW classes by loading up on TR or once a week classes in the middle of the week. Instead, Wednesday only classes are the only once-a-week classes that have statistically lower rates of empty seats than the other once-a-week classes.

It would be ideal to have registration data over time so that one could test whether TR classes fill first, then come MW (or W) classes, and then the other classes fill later. If students have preferences for specific classes why are they not charged a premium to enroll for them?

Something to think about

2010-12-01T10:45:00.000-06:00

From this Capitalism Magazine article about the TSA:

Novelist-philosopher Ayn Rand noted, many years ago: "We are fast approaching the stage of the ultimate inversion: the stage where the government is free to do anything it pleases, while the citizens may act only by permission; which is the stage of the darkest periods of human history, the stage of rule by brute force."

Who says markets don't adjust?

2010-12-01T10:21:00.000-06:00

I know that a lot of "experts," pundits and politicians act as markets do not adjust or, if they do, they only adjust from the supply side. This is not correct, of course, but nevertheless the mythology has been created.

This article shows that the market for higher education is adjusting, for both supply-side and demand-side reasons:

Apollo Group Inc., the country's largest for-profit school company, said Monday that it has laid off 700 full-time employees, mostly in student admissions, as enrollment drops off sharply.

In October, Apollo said it expected new students enrolling at University of Phoenix campuses to drop 40 percent in the quarter ending in November and withdrew its profit outlook for its upcoming fiscal year.

Two interesting statements

2010-11-30T11:41:00.001-06:00

In this article concerning the St. Louis Cardinals:

1. "City officials acknowledge that they have never really kept tabs on the agreement."

The "agreement" refers to the "contract" signed between the St. Louis Cardinals and the city of St. Louis in exchange for public dollars to subside Busch Stadium III.

"Several city officials, including Barb Geisman, the former deputy mayor for development, said there was no reason to double-check. They trust the Cardinals.

Didn't someone once say "Trust but verify"?

Will new screening technologies increase deaths?

2010-11-24T09:50:00.000-06:00

The last line from this story:

"The Orlando International Airport officials suggest travelers arrive at least two hours before their flight."

This increase in the amount of time it takes to fly (remember it used to be 'get to the airport one hour before your flight') will likely make driving more appealing to many. This is on top of the fact that the new technology might be viewed as too intrusive for comfort.

The upshot is that if the new technologies and screening processes at the airport make more people drive and thus these people are taking more dangerous modes of transportation on a per-mile traveled basis, more people could end up dying or injured because of the substitution effect created by the increased time it takes to fly.

This would make an interesting master's thesis - whether there are more automobile fatalities, injuries, accidents, this holiday traveling season, all else equal, because of the new technologies. The only problem I see empirically is that the entire U.S. traveling public has been impacted by the new screening processes so it would be hard to find the control group. Perhaps you could use accidents on roads between cities/towns where there are no major airports versus roads between cities/towns that do?

When is a home game not a home game?

2010-11-18T11:51:00.000-06:00

"The Hoosiers will pocket $3 million Saturday for playing Penn State at FedEx Field in Landover, Md."

Why not play every "home game" somewhere else? Okay, that's a bit extreme, but the Hoosiers stand to get a big pay day by moving their home game against Penn State some 600+ miles to the East.

Indiana to cash in against Penn State at FedEx Field

One of the costs of hosting the Olympics

2010-11-18T11:48:00.000-06:00

The Olympic Village in Vancouver is, by all accounts, a beautiful development. However, the market for luxury condos is not so brisk and there is concern that taxpayers might be on the hook for part or all of C$740m!!

Olympic village falls into receivership as city takes control

Why the 12 team conference?

2010-11-18T11:38:00.000-06:00

Here is one reason why (big-time) football conferences like the twelve-team format. The title game yields about $20m per year for the conference.

Fox lands Big Ten's football title games

QEII Explained

2010-11-14T19:34:00.000-06:00

Very funny - and pretty much on point:

Interesting maths at Popular Mechanics

2010-11-13T09:53:00.001-06:00

From imgur.com

Does it get any better than this?

2010-11-11T09:35:00.001-06:00

The headline from the Los Angeles Times says it all. We have run down the eighth rabbit hole.

Joe Biden update: The VP meets on government transparency today. But that meeting is closed

Some of what is wrong with economics today

2010-11-09T12:48:00.002-06:00

On page 1313 (actual page 14) of the current issue of the American Economic Review has this very intuitive and, of course, easy to implement statement:

The optimal donation a_j by a citizen satisfies the first-order condition, which in a symmetric equilibrium is

Does the author really think that individuals behave according to this equation? If not, then why should we? If so, then what?

And people think economics is confusing

2010-11-08T16:02:00.000-06:00

http://i.imgur.com/jlBbr.jpg

2010-11-02T13:58:00.000-05:00

http://i.imgur.com/jlBbr.jpg

Job losses in 2009 likely bigger than thought | Reuters

2010-10-07T13:23:00.000-05:00

What are the implications for us applied economists who use national, regional, or local unemployment rates as reported by the government?

The Labor Department on Friday will give an initial estimate of how far off its count of employment may have been in the 12 months through March. The government admitted earlier this year that its count through March 2009 had overstated employment by 902,000 jobs.

If there is systematic measurement error injected into the unemployment numbers for political reasons, this would be horrible. If there is systematic measurement error injected into the unemployment numbers because we only have recessions as great as the one we have had/are in every fifty years or so, then that is bad but not as horrible. I suppose we hope that the Bush/Clinton doucracy didn't fudge the numbers as well?

Job losses in 2009 likely bigger than thought | Reuters

At least they were thorough

2010-10-06T22:08:00.000-05:00

2010 MLB Average Attendance

2010-10-06T09:46:00.000-05:00

By the way, professional baseball is popular:

MLB's 30 clubs averaged 30,141 fans per game this season, down 0.6% from '09. The total of 73.06 million fans marks the sixth-highest attendance mark in MLB history.

MLB Average Attendance Down 0.6%; Reds See 18% Increase

Hey 20,000 Arlingtonians

2010-10-06T09:41:00.000-05:00

I wonder if 20,000 or more Arlingtonians thought they would have a crack at attending the upcoming Super Bowl being held in the stadium toward which the city is kicking $325m. If so, they might have been surprised to read in the local paper:

Frank Supovitz, NFL executive vice president of special events, said there are no plans for a six-figure attendance at the Super Bowl – a number that some media observers assumed was a done deal.

In other words, thanks for the fish.

NFL says record crowd at 2011 Super Bowl unlikely | Dallas Cowboys Stadium | Sports News | News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News

Does this compute?

2010-10-06T09:26:00.003-05:00

Grace Bible College in Western Michigan touts the following statistics:

Students: 207, about 80 percent from Michigan and two-thirds from West Michigan.

Athletic programs: basketball, cross country, soccer, tennis, men's golf, women's volleyball; the men's basketball team has won back-to-back national titles.

How many multi-sport athletes play at Grace Bible?

School's site
School's Athletic site

Certification of what?

2010-10-06T09:23:00.000-05:00

I like these lines from this story:

Located on a former cattle pasture on an eastward-facing slope, most of the 351-acre campus of Washington State University, Vancouver is situated well above the meandering course of Salmon Creek and its tributary of Mill Creek.

Yet, the campus has earned distinction as a bona fide salmon-safe environment.

I am also not likely to see a polar bear in my back yard but I should seek polar bear friendly status?

Education | WSU-Vancouver certified as salmon friendly | Seattle Times Newspaper

President Obama weighs in on University Food Courts

2010-09-29T09:54:00.000-05:00

President Obama chimes in about the amenities on campus:

Obama mentioned that when he was in college, athletic facilities and food courts weren't nearly as nice as they are today. And the sad reality is that students have come to expect these sorts of amenities and a college that doesn't offer them will risk losing applicants, and therefore tuition dollars. But given that the purpose of the call was to help motivate the millennials who helped make him president in 2008, the message might not sit so well. These students are already looking at a horizon of dismal job prospects upon graduation that pay so little they most certainly won't be able to afford the state-of-the-art gym and sushi bar they enjoyed in college.

National Journal Online - Obama Dismisses Need For College Amenities

Don't be a fool...stay in school?

2010-09-22T12:08:00.000-05:00

According to a story in the New York Times, staying in school pays off within a decade or so.

Degree Payoff Is Growing, College Board Says - NYTimes.com

UC Berkeley's sports dilemma

2010-09-21T09:23:00.000-05:00

The impacts of the recession are being felt in all sorts of areas, some of which were once held to be beyond the reach of a recession. One area is in sports - both amateur and professional. This op-ed piece about sports at the University of California is interesting because it suggests that times are very tough indeed if Cal is debating whether to drop some sports. However, the op-ed does mention the potential legal jackpot that any university might find itself in when it tries to save money by cutting sports on campus:

Still, the harder choices remain. Berkeley supports more sports teams than any other Pac-10 school except Stanford. To bring the losses down to a manageable number - such as $5 million per year - it may mean dramatic steps such as dropping teams, a decision complicated by federal laws giving both sexes equal rights to play sports.

UC Berkeley's sports dilemma

Florida universities weigh flat-rate tuition system - Education - MiamiHerald.com

2010-09-20T11:08:00.000-05:00

Higher education tuition, fees, room and board, is an interesting case study in price discrimination. That said, there is a constant complaint by some in higher education that students take too long to finish school. I am sure part of the trend of taking longer to finish school has to do with the pricing of higher education. I wonder if flat-rate tuition would help mitigate the problem of the "professional student" while introducing other, unintended, consequences?

Florida universities weigh flat-rate tuition system - Education - MiamiHerald.com

The Economics of Beer and Brewing Conference | INOMICS - The Internet Site for Economists

2010-09-20T09:25:00.000-05:00

Why did I receive notice of this conference two days before it is slated to begin?

2nd Beeronomics - The Economics of Beer and Brewing Conference | INOMICS - The Internet Site for Economists

Markets in everything: Fantasy Sports Insurance

2010-09-15T14:45:00.000-05:00

I understand why team owners purchase insurance against players getting injured. I am not sure I understand what fantasy sports insurance is supposed to protect? I do not play fantasy sports - are there money payouts each week or some other reason why someone would purchase $200 insurance against their fantasy quarterback being injured? As a wise man once said - there are markets for everything.

Fantasy Sports Insurance :: Armor For Your Fantasy Investment

This is not good

2010-09-13T08:15:00.001-05:00

A quote from one of the UGA Dawg blogs:

Georgia is 10 - 11 in the last 21 games against the SEC east

I didn't realize that it was that bad, but it is..

On Paris in the Terror

2010-09-09T18:52:00.003-05:00

I am finishing up Stanley Loomis's "Paris in the Terror" which is an insightful and detailed history of what happened when the light of reason was doused in the City of Lights. I see now why the French Revolution is not coupled with the English and American Revolutions and, rather, should be more closely coupled with the Russian Revolution. In my mind, the English and American Revolutions centered on ideas that led to increased freedom and the end to random violence by the state. The French and Russian Revolutions seem to have led to the opposite, a reduction in freedom and an increase in random violence by the state. I have not studied much French history, to my chagrin, so I may have a naive view of what the French Revolution was all about but this is what I take away from Loomis's treatment of the events.

Towards the end of the book, Loomis has three very powerful paragraphs that are chilling to freedom-lovers:

Mme. Duplessis never received this little cry [a letter written by her daughter before the daughter was sent to the guillotine] from the edge of the grave. All such letters from the condemned were seized by Forquier's clerks and thrown into the files of the Tribunal, an act not so much of deliberate cruelty as of bureaucratic indifference to human suffering. The heyday had now come to the petit commissaire, the traditionally rude and disaffected men who make life miserable for those who solicit consideration from the offices of government. But instead of handling visas, tax difficulties or postage stamps, the clerks of the Revolutionary Tribunal dispatched human life.

I get a very Anthem-like or 1984-like dystopian view of human existence in such a system.

The paragraph continues:

In the welter of red tape and paper work with which they surrounded themselves, they were as insensitive to the grief of the bereaved as they were to the anguish of the dying. Lucile's last letter and many hundreds like it may be read today in the French National Archives, mute and terrible testimonies to the human suffering that was the price of the lifeless theories of such men as Robespierre and St. Just. Many of them are still stained with tears and in many others an unsteady hand betrays all to graphically the fear and despair of their doomed author.

I wonder what Loomis means by "lifeless theories?" In one sense the theories of Robespierre and his future fellow-travelers are lifeless because life, as defined by liberal (not statist) traditions, cannot exist in a world "run" by Robespierre. Or is Loomis suggesting that the theories of Robespierre were lifeless in the sense that individuals - a lot of individuals - had to die to fulfill the theory? This is very much what Lenin and Stalin, especially the latter, did.

Still more from Loomis:

During the months that preceded Danton's death the Tribunal had claimed 116 victims. in the following two months more than 500 were sent to their deaths. After the Law off 22 Prairial (June 10) was passed, the carnage began in earnest. Between June 10 and July 27, the day of robespierre's downfall, 1,366 victims perished. There can be no doubt that if Robespieere had not been overthrown, these numbers would have greatly increased in the months after Thermidor.

Loomis points out that the total population of Paris at the time was about 650,000, so it seems that the "Terror" only led to the death of a small minority of people. However, Loomis points out that the "terror" arose because anyone and everyone was on the potential hit-list of the state. Aristocrats, cleaning girls, doctors, scientists, land-lords - the heterogeneity of the people who were sent to the guillotine is how the entire city was paralyzed with fear.

A final paragraph that speaks to the fragility of human freedom in the face of evildoers:

In many ways it was better to be in prison than "free" in a city paralyzed by terror and suspicion. In prison, at least, the worst was over. One could fairly well count on death. "Out of prison you could not venture to meet, speak to or scarcely look at your friends, so terrified were you of compromising one another." So writes Pasquier, Napoleon's future Chancellor. "If you heard a knock on the door you immediately imagined that Revolutionary commissaires had come to take you away. But behind bars you re-entered society, as it were. You were surrounded by your relatives and friends and could converse freely with them."

Don't say "it can't happen here" because you know it can - if we are not vigilant about our freedoms.

GO DAWGS

2010-09-05T18:58:00.001-05:00

Now that football season is here again, how about a GO VIDEO for the Bulldawg Nation.

I head to Columbia this Saturday for the Battle Royale between the Dawgs and the Gamecocks. Expect another bruiser of a fight between two good teams. Hopefully UGA can come out ahead.

Football fail

2010-08-28T17:35:00.001-05:00

Making the rounds at YouTube:

Odd price discrimination?

2010-08-18T15:44:00.001-05:00

From imgur.com

Very cool video

2010-08-18T15:35:00.001-05:00

This one is making the rounds - it is a 7 minute film taken from a camera mounted on one of the solid fuel boosters for the space shuttle. The booster is dropped from the shuttle around the 2 min mark and then the fun begins. Beautiful.

UGA Go-Video

2010-08-16T22:42:00.003-05:00

Supposedly this is the video that will be played between the third and fourth quarters this year at Sanford Stadium in Athens:

I like the video but I am not sold on the music - perhaps with 90,000+ folks singing along it might be better. Perhaps the crowd needs to come up with a pulsating dance move or sway to the music in order to give the song some effect - like the "Jump" that takes place at Wisconsin?

(Update: the more I think about this video, the less I think it is actually going to be the video played)

Just how bad is it?

2010-08-12T11:50:00.001-05:00

Pretty bad - which by now most of us have figured out. An interesting, if somewhat confusing, paper from the NY Times includes this graphic:

Wow.

Krugman on "idle money"

2010-08-09T12:51:00.000-05:00

I am glad that Krugman is taking notice of the "crumbling of America" - I pointed out the paved-road-to-gravel-road phenomonon a few weeks ago. The turning out the lights in Colorado Springs is eerily familiar to those who have read (and probably should re-read) Atlas Shrugged.

However, even Paul Krugman can't believe this statement from his latest tirade:

...when we give millionaires more money instead, there's a good chance that most of that money will just sit idle.

What? Millionaires just put the money in their mattresses and call it a day? Surely our Nobel winner doesn't REALLY think that - he is just piping off with political rhetoric, right? Man, I hope so.

And what if the millionaires put their money in their mattresses? Why does Krugman think he or the government (which is the rest of us) have the right to take the money and use it in other ways?

Op-Ed Columnist - America Goes Dark - NYTimes.com

An Appeal for John Gault?

2010-08-07T12:26:00.000-05:00

Jobless claims raise doubts about economy - Yahoo! Finance

The story is not that interesting - more claims that recent bad-news economic data is "unexpected" and "surprising." What I did find interesting was this comment to the story:

Here I sit in Arkansas reading all these posts from people who feel just like me. I keep praying for a miracle but don't see one. Oh, Just one. BP sealed the gulf well. If there is anyone smart out there who can do something about this economy I sure hope you step forward. If not then I pray something happens in government to change from this mess we are in. I blame the congress, crappy news media and liberals real bad for this mess. News media have ruined themselves. They may be riding high now but after November I will sit back and see egg all over their faces. I want new news anchors and new people in charge after November. When you look at it in hindsite the media made our president. They are helping to push racism. I just wish all of the above would just go home and leave it to smarter folks. America will have it's miracle and it will start on election day in November. We will finish the job in 2012. I pray we last long enough

This seems like an appeal for our modern-day John Gault - but if he/she exists they would do well to stay in the shadows. Just as in the book, the individuals with ability but who lack political pull are being targeted for increased burdens and blame. It is weird to read this appeal by an individual in Arkansas which sounds a lot like the anonymous individuals described in Atlas Shrugged.

Novelty effect in New York?

2010-08-05T12:21:00.002-05:00

Following up on yesterday's post concerning AL attendance, today SBD released the attendance figures of the National League. As I suspected, attendance to the New York Mets is down 13% from last year (the first year of Citi Field). Their attendance is still greater than that of the Braves, even though the Braves are leading their division and the Mets are in last place in the NL East. Thus, the novelty effect for the Mets might still be apparent in the annual attendance data but the big boost from last year is definitely down.

Two other teams with relatively new stadiums - Nationals and Pirates - are at the bottom of the attendance rankings. Again, these teams might still have attendance this year that is higher than it otherwise would be because of their new (or relatively new) stadiums.

Interestingly, the Marlins are in last place in terms of attendance and yet they are the next team to get a new stadium. Their novelty boost will likely be high in the first year, but I wonder how long it will take for Marlins attendance to fall to the bottom of the rankings again?

Novelty effect in Minneapolis

2010-08-04T11:59:00.004-05:00

The Minnesota Twins are playing in a new stadium this year - Target Field. I haven't been but it looks like a nice park. I attended a game in the Metrodome a few years back and anything would be an improvement over that stadium.

In sports economics there has been a well documented "Novelty Effect" or "Honeymoon Effect" when a team moves into a new stadium. There is a period of time after the stadium opens during which attendance increases because people want to see a game in the new stadium, not because the team is good or better than it was in the past. The Twins are battling for their division but it is an interesting hypothesis that teams might perform worse after moving to a new stadium because the team owner anticipates the Novelty Effect and thus cuts payroll/quality.

There are two questions that pertain to the novelty effect that are important for the team owner. First, how big is the initial novelty effect. Second, how long will the novelty effect last. As for the Twins, their novelty effect is huge (see attendance chart below) - attendance is up by 35% from last year and the attendance to most other American League teams is down - way down in the case of Cleveland (which, if one remembers, ran a six year consecutive sell-out streak a few years back).

The Twins ownership is therefore enjoying a windfall in terms of gate, concessions, and merchandise sales. The team might enjoy a boost in future local media revenues if the team's popularity (as reflected in attendance) stays strong. This is great for the Twins ownership in the short run. How long the novelty effect sticks around is the next question for the team's ownership. Previous studies estimated a novelty effect that lasted almost a decade - using data from the 1980s and 1990s. More recently, the novelty effect has been considerably shorter - perhaps as short as three years. Many recently opened stadiums - Pittsburgh and New York (Mets) - already have empty seats, so the novelty effect might be getting much shorter (or is somehow impacted by the macroeconomy).

Genius?

2010-08-03T14:34:00.000-05:00

This is supposedly a new bus design from China. It is a clever idea but I wonder what unintended consequences there might be.

Layoffs to gut East St. Louis police force

2010-08-02T14:35:00.000-05:00

A test of the deterrence effect of police presence? East St. Louis, never high on my list of places to visit, just fell a few more notches.

From the article:

Hubbard said he will be the lone patrolman for East St. Louis’ midnight shift when the cuts go into effect.

This is not good - one wonders how long it will take for those who can leave to do so.

Layoffs to gut East St. Louis police force

With Heat season tickets sold out, team fires season ticket sales staff - Miami-Dade Breaking News - MiamiHerald.com

2010-08-02T11:38:00.000-05:00

An unintended consequence of LeBron's move to Miami?

My guess is that the ticket sales staff at the Miami Heat never saw this coming.

With Heat season tickets sold out, team fires season ticket sales staff - Miami-Dade Breaking News - MiamiHerald.com

The Road to Serfdom in Six Minutes

2010-07-31T11:14:00.002-05:00

An excellent rendition of Hayek's underappreciated book:

Isn't this what got us into trouble in the first place?

2010-07-30T21:17:00.004-05:00

I'm talking about the cash-out refinance:

SEC is now immune from FOIA requests?

2010-07-29T13:32:00.000-05:00

Here is the particular language from the recently passed Financial Regulatory Reform:

(1) IN GENERAL- Except as provided in subsection (f), the Commission shall not be compelled to disclose records or information obtained pursuant to section 17(b), or records or information based upon or derived from such records or information, if such records or information have been obtained by the Commission for use in furtherance of the purposes of this title, including surveillance, risk assessments, or other regulatory and oversight activities.

This is not good because the SEC generally doesn't do anything except surveillance, risk assessment and other regulatory and oversight activities. Game over.

Text of H.R.4173 as Enrolled Bill: Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act - U.S. Congress - OpenCongress

Not quite the way we teach it in labor economics

2010-07-22T11:44:00.000-05:00

Assuming this story is accurate, which in today's world is becoming ever more difficult to justify, it is an interesting insight as to how the current folks think wages are determined:

"Women make up nearly half of all workers on U.S. payrolls, and two-thirds of families with children are headed either by two working parents or by a single parent who works," Biden said.

"Yet, the workplace has, for the most part, not changed to reflect these realities - and it must. Closing the gender pay gap, helping parents keep their jobs while balancing family responsibilities, and increasing workplace flexibility - these are not only women's issues, they are issues of middle class economic security," he said."

This, of course, assumes (without any reason to do so) that men and women are equally productive in every job. Justifying wage increases on the basis of need not productivity/ability is not the way it is taught in most labor economics courses.

More here: White House Backs Bill to Collect Employee Pay Information from Businesses

Economic Crisis Forces Local Governments to Let Asphalt Roads Return to Gravel - WSJ.com

2010-07-18T19:58:00.000-05:00

Economic Crisis Forces Local Governments to Let Asphalt Roads Return to Gravel - WSJ.com

This is an interesting story that describes an interesting tradeoff that local governments face in the current environment. It has this interesting paragraph:

"Our expenses outweigh the income," says Mr. Zimmerman, who has been with the county highway department for nearly 30 years. He says the county will pay about $2,600 per mile annually for the newly ground-up road, as against about $75,000 per mile to reconstruct it.

What will be interesting is how much such moves cost the local population in other ways. If the price of paving the road is set efficiently (highly unlikely, I am sure) then society will spend about $73,000 in property damage and opportunity costs per mile of unpaved road.

This about sums it up?

2010-07-17T14:30:00.001-05:00

From imgur:

Not cool.

Thanks calculus!!

2010-07-17T14:29:00.001-05:00

This from imgur:

Cool.

Nothing to worry about

2010-07-16T22:23:00.001-05:00

I wonder how many economic conundrums/problems we can find in this old advertisement?

Amazing time line of nuclear tests

2010-07-13T09:49:00.003-05:00

This is an eye-opening video of nuclear tests around the world from 1945 through 1998. I know many of these tests took place under ground but one wonders about the damage we did to the world's environment after all the above ground testing was finished. Also, the mid 1950s is an interesting time period - the sound effects are very interesting and make for an intriguing game theory class discussion:

Soccer television audience demographics

2010-06-30T11:58:00.003-05:00

From today's SportsBusinessDaily:

Playing with someone else's money

2010-06-25T20:29:00.002-05:00

This article has the following graph:

To pay for the costs of the bill, negotiators agreed to assess a fee on banks with assets of more than $50 billion and hedge funds of more than $10 billion in assets to raise $19 billion over 10 years.

How is this acceptable?!?!? Congress writes yet another 2,000 page legislation that no one will read and they negotiated over how to pay for it by discussing who to tax!! Amazing.

MLS average salary $138k

2010-06-16T11:50:00.002-05:00

Average salary in the EPL? 676k pounds or about $1.1 million per year.

Here is a list of the top 25 paid players in the MLS. The MLS has a ways to go before it can afford to purchase the best talent in the world and compete with the top European leagues.

Just another isolated incident?

2010-06-16T10:26:00.001-05:00

Check out this flash media display of bank closings. The last few seconds are amazing.