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Monday, December 06, 2010

On Hockey in the South

This week's Sports Business Journal reported turnstile counts for the various NHL teams. Granted, most teams have only played 13-15 home games to date, but I took the data on capacity utilization and "regressed" that against a dummy variable that takes a value of one if the team plays in the South (I initially included Phoenix as Southern but not the California teams).

Here are the results:

reg capacity south

Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 30
-------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 28) = 11.61
Model | 1309.25799 1 1309.25799 Prob > F = 0.0020
Residual | 3157.01117 28 112.750399 R-squared = 0.2931
-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.2679
Total | 4466.26916 29 154.009281 Root MSE = 10.618

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
capacity | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
south | -15.61925 4.5836 -3.41 0.002 -25.00833 -6.230175
_cons | 94.74783 2.214089 42.79 0.000 90.21247 99.28318

Non-Southern teams average around 95% capacity utilization whereas Southern teams average capacity utilization is about 15 percentage points lower. This would not seem conducive to long-run viability of these Southern franchises.

I added Anaheim, San Jose, and Los Angeles to the mix and renamed the DV warmstate:


reg capacity warmstate

Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 30
-------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 28) = 5.79
Model | 765.408079 1 765.408079 Prob > F = 0.0230
Residual | 3700.86108 28 132.17361 R-squared = 0.1714
-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.1418
Total | 4466.26916 29 154.009281 Root MSE = 11.497

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
capacity | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
warmstate | -10.715 4.452644 -2.41 0.023 -19.83583 -1.594171
_cons | 94.675 2.570735 36.83 0.000 89.40909 99.94091

The three California teams draw pretty well (Anaheim at 85.9%, Los Angeles at 99.8%, and San Jose at 100% capacity), which causes the parameter on warmstate to be closer to zero than the parameter on south.

Things might change over the course of the season, especially when college and professional football is finished (I think college football in the South dominates everything, including NASCAR). So, I will try to rerun these difference-in-means tests at various points during the season.

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