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Friday, May 14, 2010

Does this bode well?

I like this graph over at Calculated Risk:

What I find interesting is that in the current slowdown, the gray "recession" bar is just slightly to the right of the peak of the initial jobless claims, whereas the ocular estimator suggests that the previous recessions turned around almost immediately after or contemporaneous to the peak of initial jobless claims.

This interesting Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary suggests that we are likely in a "jobless" recovery, mainly because of the large number of part-time (underemployed) individuals who present excess capacity in labor inputs, and the long-duration unemployment that has degraded the marketable skills of many individuals.

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