Heavy Lifting - thoughts and web finds by an economist
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Tuesday, December 08, 2009

So goes California, so goes the country?

Comerica Bank's recent California Economic Activity index was released yesterday. The trend line looks like the V-shape of previous recessions. Whether the "V" turns into a "W" is the unanswered, and right now unanswerable, question.

This is my first big-time recession as a professional economist, thus I am reluctant to make any predictions because I have no personal (and even less professional) experience in these matters.

However, in my role as economist-about-town, it seems that the lack of demand is starting to hit the luxury good providers with sales this year being approximately what was earned in 2006-2007.

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