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Tuesday, September 08, 2009

My picks after week one

One of the blogs I regularly read has a free office pool set up for NCAA football. The game is to pick winners (straight up) for a select number of games during a given weekend. The twist is that of the sixteen games chosen, the individual can place a number of points to dedicate to the pick. For example, I picked UGa to lose to OSU this past weekend. I wasn't terribly sure this would happen so I only dedicated 8 points to the pick (that is, implicitly I gave the outcome a 50-50 chance of being true).

Alas, I was correct - UGA lost.

One problem I noticed right off was that, probably because the blog focuses on UGA sports, about 94% of those playing the game (about 400 people) chose UGA to win - and in fact chose the SEC team to win about the same amount of time. That wasn't such a bad strategy this past weekend as 11 of 12 SEC teams won, but in the future I am not sure if that is such a good idea.

Here are the outcomes of the first week's picks:



I am tied for third place and I didn't join the pool until after the first two games were played on Thursday night - thus I might have been in first place or close to it if I had joined earlier. The two games I missed were OU and Florida State. I am confident not too many people chose OU to lose to BYU. The FSU-Miami matchup is always a toss-up and the game's ending suggests that I was on the right track.

We will see if I can maintain my near-the-top ranking for the next few weeks.

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