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Monday, November 19, 2007

Hate crimes in Florida

The state of Florida has released a report on hate crimes in that State during 2006. In the report there is a table listing the hate crimes against property and against persons from 1991 through 2006.

I grabbed the data and threw them into Stata in order to test Granger Causality using two years of lags. I know, there isn't much data here and we are stretching the applicability of so-called causation tests when using so few observations. On the other hand, if the causation tests show anything, that might be considered fairly strong evidence in its favor.

My intuition is that property crimes are "gateway" crimes and therefore might "Granger cuase" personal crimes, but not that personal crimes do not Granger cause property crimes.

Here are the "results":

. gcause persons property, lag(2)
Granger causality test Sample: 1993 to 2006
obs = 14
H0: property does not Granger-cause persons

F( 2, 9) = 3.00
Prob > F = 0.1004

chi2(2) = 9.33 (asymptotic)
Prob > chi2 = 0.0094 (asymptotic)

. gcause property persons, lag(2)
Granger causality test Sample: 1993 to 2006
obs = 14
H0: persons does not Granger-cause property

F( 2, 9) = 0.56
Prob > F = 0.5882

chi2(2) = 1.75 (asymptotic)
Prob > chi2 = 0.4164 (asymptotic)

The results suggest that during these 16 years (1991-2006), personal crime did not Granger-cause propety crimes (p=0.58). However, there is weak evidence that property crimes Granger-cuase personal crimes (p=0.10). The upshot? Perhaps curtailing property crimes, either through education or increased policing efforts, would reduce personal crimes in the future?

Stata data file

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