Heavy Lifting - thoughts and web finds by an economist
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Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Predicting recession?

From Advertising Age:
VOTE IN THE 'AD AGE' WEEKLY ONLINE POLL

BACKGROUND: With years of record stock gains and an overheated real-estate market, critics kept claiming the bubble had to burst at some point. The housing market has screeched to a halt and many see the subprime meltdown as a harbinger of worse to come. In the marketing and media world, old-world media is starting to feel the pain. But it's unclear whether that's a result of the economy or the inevitable outcome of changing media habits.

THIS WEEK'S POLL QUESTION: Do you think the country is headed for a recession?
The results as of 11:40am were 55% voting YES and 45% voting NO. I am not sure how much stock to put in this particular forecast, after all the "background" discussion is fairly well slanted and not 100% accurate. It is not clear that record stock gains are indication of a bubble and it is less clear that the housing market has screeched to a halt.

That said, the last sentence of the background section is an interesting hypothesis, one that might even be worthy a masters thesis or dissertation.

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