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Tuesday, February 06, 2007
I am messing around with NCAA football data from the 2006 season. I have data on all the games played in Division IA and created a dummy variable that takes a value of one if the team wins (absolutely) and zero otherwise.
For giggles, I created a dummy variable that takes a value of one if the previous week was a loss for the team and another that takes a value of one if the previous week a bye.
I also included a continuous variable which measures the relative ranking of the team to its opponent - a value of one indicates parity of teams, values above one suggest the team in focus is worse, and values less than one suggest the team in focus is better.
I have a bit of a problem in that each game is included in the data twice - one for the home team and one for the away team. I am trying to figure out a way to get around this problem in STATA, but for the moment, here are some results.
I threw the data into the probit blender and here's what we get:
The lower panel reports the marginal effects of the dummy variables on the odds of winning. If the previous week was a loss, the team has an 18% chance of losing the current week's game, everything else equal. Moreover, the bye week reduces the odds of winning by about 8.5%.
I wonder if result will prove robust. I have some work to do on the data.
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