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Wednesday, November 08, 2006

A different Mendoza line

In baseball, the cursed Mendoza line (batting below .200) is a place no starting field positition player wants to see. How about models that predict correctly less than 20% of time? I think most statisticians would agree that level of accuracy is not stellar.

This Chronicle of Higher Education article describes a baseball playoff prediction model by a professor at New Jersey Tech that was accuraate 14.3% of the time:
Before the Major League Baseball playoffs began last month, the New Jersey Institute of Technology issued a news release trumpeting the work of an associate professor of mathematical sciences who devised a mathematical model to predict the winners of the postseason's first round.

The result? He went 0 for 4
Not so good.

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