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Friday, September 15, 2006

Bush Approval Ratings, Gas Prices, and Iraq: Update

A few months ago, I posted on the correlation between Bush's approval rating, Operation Iraqi Freedom deaths, and the price of gasoline. There seems to be a strong correlation between the price of gasoline and Bush's approval, not so strong a correlation between Iraqi casualties and Bush's approval. Things are starting to heat up for the election run, so I figured I would update the data and take a crack at some further analysis.

Here is an updated graph depicting Pres. Bush's approval rating (measured on the left axis) and the inverse of gasoline price (measured on the right axis). As the red line decreases, this corresponds with an increase in the national average retail price of gasoline:



Here is the relationship between the inverse of the price per barrel of crude oil and Bush's approval ratings.



Here is the relationship between gasoline prices and the number of oil rigs operational in North America:




I will have some formal analysis finished over the weekend. Look back for a short working paper to that effect.

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