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Sunday, April 10, 2005

Baseball Predictions

I didn't get a chance to get to this on Friday, but I wanted to give my "predictions" for the current baseball season. The adage goes that in baseball you win a third of your games, lose a third of your games, and the interesting part is what you do with the other third of the games.

As of Friday, all teams had played three games (out of an eventual 162). I wonder whether the first three games can be a good predictor for who will be around at the end of the season? The data are available, and perhaps I will take a closer look at this issue - which is essentially a sample size problem.

Anyways, here were the teams who had one at least two of three - will they be the ones contending for pennants at the end of the season? We'll find out:

AL West: Oakland, Los Angeles
AL Central: Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota
AL East: New York, Toronto

NL West: Arizona
NL Central: Cincinnati, Milwaukee
NL East: Atlanta, Washington

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