Heavy Lifting - thoughts and web finds by an economist
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Wednesday, January 19, 2005
One of the hardest lessons for econometrics students is the concept of sample selection and its potential to bias results.
Case in point: exit polling during the Nov. 2004 election. More Democrat voters took the exit poll than Republican voters and therefore the exit polls suggested the Kerry was going to win. A new report suggests that the exit polling was flawed and there doesn't seem to be any evidence of systematic vote fraud:
Exit polls do not support the allegations of fraud due to rigging of voting equipment. Our analysis of the difference between the vote count and the exit poll at each polling location in our sample has found no systematic differences for precincts using touch screen and optical scan voting equipment," the report found.
At least they are getting around to recognizing that there is a problem:
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