Heavy Lifting - thoughts and web finds by an economist
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Tuesday, April 06, 2004

Unemployment. Is the worst over?

Pres. Bush has been hitting the circuit celebrating the improved job market as reported last week. This short report is being hyped by the White House. It seems rather innocuous, but the interesting picture is that of unemployment

Perhaps Pres. Bush can count on the same trends that occurred after the last two recessions and unemployment rate may continue to drop throughout the summer - right up to November? The important empirical question: Has the increase in employment been caused by Pres. Bush's policies (i.e., tax cuts) or is it a natural outcome of expansion after recession? For election purposes, it might not matter what the answer is. For accuracy in economic policy, the question is of utmost importance.

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